“They were the best of times, they were the worst of times; each with too much supply in the face of cyclically low demand. Just as in Dickens’ Tale of Two Cities, every real estate cycle is the same, yet every cycle is different,” Dr. Peter Linneman stated in his recent White Paper, “The Tale of Two Cycles.” Linneman explains that in the crashes of the early 1990s and 2009, there was an abundance of supply for too little demand yet both offer distinctive features and lessons for the future.
Both crashes were not only caused by a much greater supply of space than demand but also due to a retreat of real estate capital. Linneman explains that the crashes evolved into this enigma very differently. Dr. Peter Linneman states, “The recent crash was caused by a sharp decline in space demand meeting modest overbuilding. Thus, the second quarter of 2007 registered a healthy CBD vacancy rate of 9.7%, and most observers (we were among the minority which foresaw a recession) felt that due to the so-called Great Moderation, the demand boom would never end. In marked contrast, the 1990s real estate crisis was the result of out of control development meeting a modest cyclical demand decline.”
In his latest White Paper, Linneman illuminates on the late 1980s. The economy was booming during this time but the supply was increasing so vividly that vacancy rates stayed dangerously high. He states an example on the matter, “Even as the CBD office vacancy rate was 15.6% in 1989, developers refused to stop building, assuming that their new speculative buildings were immune to the forces of supply and demand. Hence the recessionary decline in demand in 1990 caused a complete real estate collapse due to the already existing excess supply and a burgeoning pipeline of new supply.”
Global Economic Briefing: Featuring Dr. Peter Linneman, NAI’s Chief Economist & Jay Olshonsky, NAI Global President
Executives and Researchers from around the globe joined together on July 11th at 12:00 PM, Eastern for an Economic Briefing as facilitated by NAI Global’s President, Jay Olshonsky and presented by NAI’s Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman. This Web conference hosted more than 1,000 people who benefited from insights offered which touched upon where we are in the recovery and drilled into:
Real Rent Analysis: Which markets are below historical averages?
A comparison between this cycle and the 1990s
More reasons the Euro will fail
How we are repeating Japan’s mistakes
An update of capital markets
Social Security implications as the boomers retire
A recording of the event will be made available on naiglobal.com on or before July 20th. Our next Economic Briefing is scheduled for October.
“In recent years, Brazil’s strong GDP growth rate has earned it a spot among the overly-hyped BRIC nations (along with Russia, India, and China) as a great place to invest,” said Dr. Linneman, “However, it is important to keep in mind that the BRIC economies are growing from a smaller base than the U.S.”
Dr. Linneman went on to explain that in 2010 and again in 2011, with the exception of Russia, the growth in US dollars exceeded that of all the BRIC countries. “But growth for the sake of growth is useless; the real reason a country grows is to improve the standard of living of its population,” Linneman explained, “From a purely economic perspective, where would a nationality-blind consumer (or investor) choose to live (invest)? Would this consumer choose Brazil, Russia, India, China, or the U.S.? If given the option, most choose America. At the end of the day, the U.S. is a better place to put dollars to work in spite of high BRIC growth rates.”
PRINCETON, NJ, November 26, 2012 – In his latest white paper, “Real Estate Recovery is all About Job Growth,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, outlines that without a robust job recovery, the real estate market will continue to be slow to recover. He states, “After peaking in October 2009 at 10% (revised), the U.S.unemployment rate stood at 7.8% at the end of September 2012, primarily due to 100,000 people leaving the labor force since June. Instead of a robust recovery spurred by the largest peacetime federal spending increase, the economy limps forward under the burdens of excessive government spending and regulatory incursions.”
He also cites, “The single most important indicator for real estate is the proportion of lost jobs that has been recovered to date. This is because at the beginning of the recession, almost all property sectors were in balance. As the recession set in, we lost 8.8
million jobs, and only as these jobs are recovered will real estate space demand approach 2008 levels.”
“Thus far, the U.S. has recovered 48.5% of Payroll Survey jobs and 58% of Household Survey jobs, leaving us 16
million jobs (1.9 standard deviations) below the historical growth trend. The U.S. added just 437,000 jobs over the last three months, a pace which is in line with the tepid 1.8 million jobs gained over the trailing 12 months through September. At the current pace, we will not recover all lost jobs until 2015.”
The white paper also addresses the health of the U.S. real estate recovery being tied to the strength and timing of the nation’s macroeconomic recovery and cites “the best news is that single-family and multifamily housing starts finally are on a clear ascent.”
A PDF of the white paper can be downloaded here:
About NAI Global
NAI Global is one of the leading commercial real estate services providers worldwide. Headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, NAI Global manages a network of 5,000 commercial real estate professionals and 350 offices in over 55 countries, and completes over $45 billion in annual transaction volume. Since 1978, NAI Global clients have built their businesses on the power of NAI’s expanding network. NAI Global’s extensive services include corporate real estate services, brokerage and leasing, property and facilities management, real estate investment and capital market services, due diligence, global supply chain consulting and related advisory services. To learn more, visit www.naiglobal.com.
NAI Global, the premier managed network of commercial real estate firms and one of the largest real estate services providers worldwide, announces its expansion of coverage into the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, with the addition of NAI Puerto Rico.
Headquartered in San Juan, NAI Puerto Rico is a full-service commercial firm offering a complete range of real estate services including tenant representation, marketing research, location consulting, project management, lease renewals/restructures and acquisitions/dispositions
NAI Puerto Rico was founded by Hector J. Aponte SIOR, an industry veteran with over 15 years of experience in the commercial real estate industry. Hector has completed a wide array of major real estate transactions in Puerto Rico, for private and government clients such as Bayer, Sanofi, Publicis, ConAgra Foods, WPP, CSA Group, Marsh & McLennan, Starbucks Coffee, U.S. Army, IRS, and the EPA.
“By joining NAI, we are expanding our capabilities and resources to many international markets; this will definitely boost our services and will keep us on top,” said NAI Business Director, Mr. Hector J. Aponte. “NAI gives us new technology, tools, shared resources, marketing, and access to over 350 offices worldwide, which will enable us to develop new opportunities for clients looking for extensive representation or international resources.”
“This is a key market for us, especially for our corporate and investor clients seeking to take advantage of the commonwealth’s attractive tax policies,” said NAI Global President, Jeffrey Finn. “With Hector and his team at NAI Puerto Rico, we now have some of the best real estate experts in that region to serve our clients. I am excited about our new partnership and look forward to working together in the coming months and years.”
NAI Global is among the largest commercial real estate services organizations in the world, comprising 5,000+ professionals in 55 countries in more than 350 offices. NAI advisors such as NAI Puerto Rico work in tandem with its global management team to ensure clients strategically optimize their real estate assets. NAI offices complete over $45 billion in combined transactions annually and manage over 300 million square feet of commercial space.
NAI Puerto Rico is located at Ponce de Leon Avenue #1072, San Juan 00928
About NAI Global
NAI Global’s extensive services include corporate real estate services, brokerage and leasing, property and facilities management, real estate investment and capital market services, due diligence, global supply chain consulting and related advisory services. To learn more, visit www.naiglobal.com. Follow us on Twitter (@NAIGlobal) and Facebook.