“In recent years, Brazil’s strong GDP growth rate has earned it a spot among the overly-hyped BRIC nations (along with Russia, India, and China) as a great place to invest,” said Dr. Linneman, “However, it is important to keep in mind that the BRIC economies are growing from a smaller base than the U.S.”
Dr. Linneman went on to explain that in 2010 and again in 2011, with the exception of Russia, the growth in US dollars exceeded that of all the BRIC countries. “But growth for the sake of growth is useless; the real reason a country grows is to improve the standard of living of its population,” Linneman explained, “From a purely economic perspective, where would a nationality-blind consumer (or investor) choose to live (invest)? Would this consumer choose Brazil, Russia, India, China, or the U.S.? If given the option, most choose America. At the end of the day, the U.S. is a better place to put dollars to work in spite of high BRIC growth rates.”
PRINCETON, NJ, November 26, 2012 – In his latest white paper, “Real Estate Recovery is all About Job Growth,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, outlines that without a robust job recovery, the real estate market will continue to be slow to recover. He states, “After peaking in October 2009 at 10% (revised), the U.S.unemployment rate stood at 7.8% at the end of September 2012, primarily due to 100,000 people leaving the labor force since June. Instead of a robust recovery spurred by the largest peacetime federal spending increase, the economy limps forward under the burdens of excessive government spending and regulatory incursions.”
He also cites, “The single most important indicator for real estate is the proportion of lost jobs that has been recovered to date. This is because at the beginning of the recession, almost all property sectors were in balance. As the recession set in, we lost 8.8
million jobs, and only as these jobs are recovered will real estate space demand approach 2008 levels.”
“Thus far, the U.S. has recovered 48.5% of Payroll Survey jobs and 58% of Household Survey jobs, leaving us 16
million jobs (1.9 standard deviations) below the historical growth trend. The U.S. added just 437,000 jobs over the last three months, a pace which is in line with the tepid 1.8 million jobs gained over the trailing 12 months through September. At the current pace, we will not recover all lost jobs until 2015.”
The white paper also addresses the health of the U.S. real estate recovery being tied to the strength and timing of the nation’s macroeconomic recovery and cites “the best news is that single-family and multifamily housing starts finally are on a clear ascent.”
A PDF of the white paper can be downloaded here:
About NAI Global
NAI Global is one of the leading commercial real estate services providers worldwide. Headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, NAI Global manages a network of 5,000 commercial real estate professionals and 350 offices in over 55 countries, and completes over $45 billion in annual transaction volume. Since 1978, NAI Global clients have built their businesses on the power of NAI’s expanding network. NAI Global’s extensive services include corporate real estate services, brokerage and leasing, property and facilities management, real estate investment and capital market services, due diligence, global supply chain consulting and related advisory services. To learn more, visit www.naiglobal.com.
NAI Global, the premier managed network of commercial real estate firms and one of the largest real estate services providers worldwide, announces its expansion of coverage into the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, with the addition of NAI Puerto Rico.
Headquartered in San Juan, NAI Puerto Rico is a full-service commercial firm offering a complete range of real estate services including tenant representation, marketing research, location consulting, project management, lease renewals/restructures and acquisitions/dispositions
NAI Puerto Rico was founded by Hector J. Aponte SIOR, an industry veteran with over 15 years of experience in the commercial real estate industry. Hector has completed a wide array of major real estate transactions in Puerto Rico, for private and government clients such as Bayer, Sanofi, Publicis, ConAgra Foods, WPP, CSA Group, Marsh & McLennan, Starbucks Coffee, U.S. Army, IRS, and the EPA.
“By joining NAI, we are expanding our capabilities and resources to many international markets; this will definitely boost our services and will keep us on top,” said NAI Business Director, Mr. Hector J. Aponte. “NAI gives us new technology, tools, shared resources, marketing, and access to over 350 offices worldwide, which will enable us to develop new opportunities for clients looking for extensive representation or international resources.”
“This is a key market for us, especially for our corporate and investor clients seeking to take advantage of the commonwealth’s attractive tax policies,” said NAI Global President, Jeffrey Finn. “With Hector and his team at NAI Puerto Rico, we now have some of the best real estate experts in that region to serve our clients. I am excited about our new partnership and look forward to working together in the coming months and years.”
NAI Global is among the largest commercial real estate services organizations in the world, comprising 5,000+ professionals in 55 countries in more than 350 offices. NAI advisors such as NAI Puerto Rico work in tandem with its global management team to ensure clients strategically optimize their real estate assets. NAI offices complete over $45 billion in combined transactions annually and manage over 300 million square feet of commercial space.
NAI Puerto Rico is located at Ponce de Leon Avenue #1072, San Juan 00928
About NAI Global
NAI Global’s extensive services include corporate real estate services, brokerage and leasing, property and facilities management, real estate investment and capital market services, due diligence, global supply chain consulting and related advisory services. To learn more, visit www.naiglobal.com. Follow us on Twitter (@NAIGlobal) and Facebook.
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.