The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.
As we round the 3th quarter 0f 2011, we are seeing that lenders are increasingly willing to sell notes/assets to clear up their books. With the real estate recovery under way, more sideline capital are chasing the few opportunities on the market and The increased demand is prompting distressed debt owners to place more of their inventory on the market. More >
In June 2010, I analyzed CoStar Group (CoStar) data on industrial, office, retail and multi-family auction sales over a 17 month period. I recently reached out to our friends at CoStar to check out the recent 10 month period, July 2010 through April 2011. The research provided by CoStar reflects auction sales of only those properties listed with CoStar.
So, what has occurred since then? What sectors are hot? More >
In his latest white paper, “Beware of Inflation”, NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman questions how it is possible to not have inflation in the U.S. economy when healthcare and commodities prices are rapidly increasing and Federal and State governments are running record deficits. Dr. Linneman examines the impact of CPI increases, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, government deficits and other factors that will lead to massive inflation in the U.S. economy.
Most sellers and brokers use a marketing process that contains a specific “Call for Offers” date upon which initial bids are due. The goal of this effort is to stage follow-up e-mails and calls to encourage all offers to be received at the same time. This creates a sense of urgency and allows for psychological leveraging. I personally, like to provide a sample letter of intent so that all offers are presented in the same format.