PRINCETON, NJ, November 26, 2012 – In his latest white paper, “Real Estate Recovery is all About Job Growth,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, outlines that without a robust job recovery, the real estate market will continue to be slow to recover. He states, “After peaking in October 2009 at 10% (revised), the U.S.unemployment rate stood at 7.8% at the end of September 2012, primarily due to 100,000 people leaving the labor force since June. Instead of a robust recovery spurred by the largest peacetime federal spending increase, the economy limps forward under the burdens of excessive government spending and regulatory incursions.”
He also cites, “The single most important indicator for real estate is the proportion of lost jobs that has been recovered to date. This is because at the beginning of the recession, almost all property sectors were in balance. As the recession set in, we lost 8.8
million jobs, and only as these jobs are recovered will real estate space demand approach 2008 levels.”
“Thus far, the U.S. has recovered 48.5% of Payroll Survey jobs and 58% of Household Survey jobs, leaving us 16
million jobs (1.9 standard deviations) below the historical growth trend. The U.S. added just 437,000 jobs over the last three months, a pace which is in line with the tepid 1.8 million jobs gained over the trailing 12 months through September. At the current pace, we will not recover all lost jobs until 2015.”
The white paper also addresses the health of the U.S. real estate recovery being tied to the strength and timing of the nation’s macroeconomic recovery and cites “the best news is that single-family and multifamily housing starts finally are on a clear ascent.”
A PDF of the white paper can be downloaded here:
About NAI Global
NAI Global is one of the leading commercial real estate services providers worldwide. Headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, NAI Global manages a network of 5,000 commercial real estate professionals and 350 offices in over 55 countries, and completes over $45 billion in annual transaction volume. Since 1978, NAI Global clients have built their businesses on the power of NAI’s expanding network. NAI Global’s extensive services include corporate real estate services, brokerage and leasing, property and facilities management, real estate investment and capital market services, due diligence, global supply chain consulting and related advisory services. To learn more, visit www.naiglobal.com.
NAI Global’s membership were represented by Executive Vice President, Rhyne Brown and Senior Vice President, Tim Buss of the NAI Global Special Asset Solutions team at the Information Management Network (IMN) meeting in Chicago on October 9 – 10. The event – Bank & Financial Institutions Special Assets – Executive Conference on Real Estate Workouts was attended by over 350 real estate professionals representing Banks, Federal Agencies, Attorneys, Special Servicers and industry service providers. Tim Buss moderated a panel discussion on current macroeconomic issues affecting commercial real estate. In addition to NAI Global a strong contingent from NAI Farbman attended, including Andy Farbman, Todd Szymcak, and Michael Kalil. The general feeling of the attendees is we are about half way through the repositioning of the severely distressed commercial real estate cycle in the United States. Most see 2013 as a year of slow economic recovery with a wary eye on Europe and increased federal regulations taking effect resulting from new regulations stemming from the Dodd-Frank amendments. Special recognition and appreciation is extended to NAI Farbman for hosting a dinner for over twenty attendees, including five members of the C-III Asset Services group based in their Chicago office as well as attendees from Wells Fargo, US Bank and others. Rhyne, Tim and the NAI Special Assets Solution Group see ongoing opportunities for the network in 2013 to help the United States in its economic recovery.
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.
NAI Global, the world’s premier managed network of commercial real estate firms and one of the largest real estate services worldwide, announced today that it is expanding its coverage into Colorado’s Resort Market with the addition of Vail Commercial Advisors. The firm will now operate as NAI Mountain Commercial.
Founded in 2006 to fulfill the unmet need of providing dedicated commercial property solutions in the region, NAI Mountain Commercial is the only full-service commercial real estate firm from Summit to Pitkin County. The firm is the leading regional provider of acquisition, disposition, leasing, tenant representation, property management and asset management services. NAI Mountain Commercial provides services for all types of commercial real estate assets including office, retail, industrial, hospitality, multi-family and mixed-use properties and works with many of the region’s largest owners and investors of commercial real estate.