Posts tagged capital markets
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.
In his newest white paper, European Debt Crisis NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, summarizes the origins of the European sovereign debt crises that have dominated the global financial headlines and analyzes the current status of debt in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain in addition to assessing the impact that default will have on the European economy.
As we round the 3th quarter 0f 2011, we are seeing that lenders are increasingly willing to sell notes/assets to clear up their books. With the real estate recovery under way, more sideline capital are chasing the few opportunities on the market and The increased demand is prompting distressed debt owners to place more of their inventory on the market. More >
In June 2010, I analyzed CoStar Group (CoStar) data on industrial, office, retail and multi-family auction sales over a 17 month period. I recently reached out to our friends at CoStar to check out the recent 10 month period, July 2010 through April 2011. The research provided by CoStar reflects auction sales of only those properties listed with CoStar.
So, what has occurred since then? What sectors are hot? More >