Posts tagged Commercial Real Estate
NAI Global presented its economic outlook webcast last week. Led by NAI Global President Jay Olshonsky, the webcast featured the economic insights of Dr. Peter Linneman, Chief Economist of NAI Global.
According to Dr. Linneman, despite continuing economic and political uncertainty, US commercial real estate markets are reacting favorably, although predictably, with some sectors – notably multifamily and industrial – demonstrating improvement and growth potential.
Dr. Linneman noted that renovation of existing properties in all sectors rather than new construction is driving growth, and has helped balance supply and demand. There is a strong industrial recovery underway, led by increased demand for online warehousing, resulting in healthy vacancy levels that will continue to fall. Multifamily construction is rebounding, but is still below normal levels, and an upswing in renovations is driving capital expenditure. Underproduction from the past several years resulting in a prolonged shortage will keep rents above average, but below maximum.
In the office sector, construction and renovation projects are at an all-time low, but renovations that were deferred during the recession are back on track, even though jobs have yet to return to pre-recession levels. As a result, vacancy rates have seen a slower decline, and are expected to continue to fall as the economy improves. Office rents are above average only in cities where jobs have recovered, including Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington DC and New York City (downtown and midtown).
The outlook for the retail sector is slightly less optimistic, with no new net supply and shrinkage of total inventory. Retail rents remain well below average, particularly in Atlanta, Houston, Boston, Chicago, Austin, Seattle, San Diego, Washington DC, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Although hotel construction projects fell significantly nationwide except for New York City, new owners are investing capital into existing properties in deferred renovation projects. Occupancy rates indicate a strong recover is underway.
Future defaults could bring additional opportunities for investors. Dr. Linneman noted that investors should look at 2015 – 2018 as the real period of projected defaults as most CMBS loans underwritten in 2005 through early 2008 when underwriting was more lax were 10-year loans. This could result in more product across all sectors becoming available through defaults in 2016 – 2017.
Dr. Linneman concluded, “The US commercial real estate market today is doing what we expect it do in an era of political and capital market uncertainty where we are seeing very little new construction. However, when we have more clarity than uncertainty, we could see stunning economic growth reminiscent of the 1970s-80s and post-World War II.”
Look for the webcast replay to be posted on www.naiglobal.com next week and stay tuned for details on NAI Global’s 2014 Economic Outlook webcast scheduled for January.
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.
The Manhattan office market continued on its road to recovery in Q2 with the overall vacancy rate falling to 12.7%, a slight 10 basis-point decline from the previous quarter, and asking rents rising to $48.64, a 1.9% increase from Q1.
Leasing activity was dominated by financial services and media companies, which accounted for 16 of the 20 largest leases completed during Q2. Two blockbuster deals were completed in the quarter, with Conde Nast signing a lease for 1 million SF to anchor the under-construction 1 World Trade Center, and Nomura moving from Downtown to 900,000 SF at 825 Eighth Avenue in Midtown.
As we round the 3th quarter 0f 2011, we are seeing that lenders are increasingly willing to sell notes/assets to clear up their books. With the real estate recovery under way, more sideline capital are chasing the few opportunities on the market and The increased demand is prompting distressed debt owners to place more of their inventory on the market. More >