Posts tagged Dr. Peter Linneman
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.
Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?
Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.
For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.
In his latest white paper, “Global Economic Round-Up”, NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, evaluates the state of the global economy in Europe, Asia and the United States including the impact of the continuing European debt crisis, the rise of China and India and the current state of the U.S. economic recovery.
“The global economic recovery has been hindered by a massive game of Old Maid. Who will be forced to bear the losses generated during the downturn? Only when the losses are put behind us will the world be able to focus on creating new wealth,” said Dr. Linneman. “There is simply not enough European bank capital to cover the losses associated with Greece and any defaults by Spain, Portugal or Italy.”
In his newest white paper, European Debt Crisis NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, summarizes the origins of the European sovereign debt crises that have dominated the global financial headlines and analyzes the current status of debt in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain in addition to assessing the impact that default will have on the European economy.
In his latest white paper, “Beware of Inflation”, NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman questions how it is possible to not have inflation in the U.S. economy when healthcare and commodities prices are rapidly increasing and Federal and State governments are running record deficits. Dr. Linneman examines the impact of CPI increases, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, government deficits and other factors that will lead to massive inflation in the U.S. economy.