Posts tagged economic recovery
In his latest white paper, “Unprecedented Global Government Intervention,” NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, discusses the dangers and pitfalls of an extraordinary wave of global government intervention taking place in capital markets. Citing historical examples, he demonstrates intervention only prolongs periods of stagnation and uncertainty. “In all, government activity is now deterring the very investment it was hoping to spur.”
As we enter the third quarter of 2012, we are seeing the pattern of unprecedented government intervention continue. Governments around the world are using the powerful tools at their disposal; spending, regulations, fiscal policy, and taxes to interfere with the free market in hope of sparking economic recovery. The result is that instead of recovery, we are experiencing further distress as the Euro crisis intensifies and even Brazil and China’s economies slow.
In his latest white paper, “Global Economic Round-Up”, NAI Global Chief Economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, evaluates the state of the global economy in Europe, Asia and the United States including the impact of the continuing European debt crisis, the rise of China and India and the current state of the U.S. economic recovery.
“The global economic recovery has been hindered by a massive game of Old Maid. Who will be forced to bear the losses generated during the downturn? Only when the losses are put behind us will the world be able to focus on creating new wealth,” said Dr. Linneman. “There is simply not enough European bank capital to cover the losses associated with Greece and any defaults by Spain, Portugal or Italy.”
Since the beginning of 2011, there has been a torrid level of M&A activity in the commercial real estate services industry. Recently announced deals include CBRE’s acquisition of the ING Real Estate fund management business; the sale of Newmark to financial derivatives house BGC; Colony Capital’s loan and exclusive look period with Grubb & Ellis; the recapitalization of DTZ by investment group SGP and the possible follow on merger with BNP Real Estate; and the hotly rumored takeover of King Sturge by JLL. And that is just on the services side. On the information side, Argus is selling to Altus and Costar is acquiring Loopnet.
In his latest white paper, “Beware of Inflation”, NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman questions how it is possible to not have inflation in the U.S. economy when healthcare and commodities prices are rapidly increasing and Federal and State governments are running record deficits. Dr. Linneman examines the impact of CPI increases, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, government deficits and other factors that will lead to massive inflation in the U.S. economy.
If you were to look at the vacancy rates for CBD office space, retail space or even industrial, in any given market, you might be discouraged. You will find tenants working hard to maintain the space they currently occupy, extending and blending their leases in this tenants’ market. You will see property owners making hard choices about which properties are performing or underperforming, which to keep as investments and which to sell. The picture may look bleak. But if you look deeper, there is hope.
Transaction volume is on the rise. Sure, the largest properties aren’t moving yet, but brokers are working with clients across the U.S. who are taking additional space, moving headquarters, purchasing industrial production/distribution facilities. And the pace is increasing.
The recession rocked the industry to its core fundamentals, and it will take another few years before we see anything close to the transaction volume we witnessed in 2005-2007. But as investors come off the sideline, cap and interest rates stabilize, jobs come back, and consumer demand picks up, the commercial real estate market worldwide is starting to heal.
It won’t be an easy recovery, but we are on our way back!