The following post is an excerpt from the Summer 2012 issue of The Linneman Letter.

Every executive with whom we speak expresses utter confusion about the state of the global and U.S. economy and capital markets. As a result, they are in a muddle about their investment strategies. They closely monitor economic and capital market data for signs that “everything is all right,” yet even as the U.S. economy grows at a seemingly healthy rate, they remain extraordinarily ill at ease. Why?

Simply stated, this discomfort reflects the fact that even though U.S. real GDP and employment are growing at moderately healthy paces, we remain in totally uncharted waters in terms of both the economy and our capital markets. And when private decision makers are in unfamiliar (and unrecognizable) landscapes, they act very cautiously.

For example, we have not seen in our lifetime federal budget deficits as large as those which currently exist. Not only is U.S. federal spending as a percent of GDP at a peace-time high, but federal revenues as a percent of GDP are well below their historic norm, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits. Compounding the problem of unprecedented U.S. budget deficits is the fact that there is neither political leadership nor a political consensus on how to bring the federal budget back in balance. This is creating a situation in which the only clarity is that the current situation is not sustainable.

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