Posts tagged office
Asia Pacific investment markets have not been immune to the global volatility, most recently with the eurozone debt crisis. In the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and Australia all saw transactions slow in Q3 2011, although China’s volume for both commercial property and land continued to increase, but at a far slower pace.
There have been some major governmental interventions through tighter property regulations over the last 12 months in places like Singapore, Hong Kong and China. These regulations have primarily been directed to control spiraling residential values and reduce speculation. Such policies include restrictions on the number of properties one family can own in one city, larger down payment requirements, higher stamp duty (tax) on the seller if the property is traded within three to five years of acquisition, as well as the introduction of annual property taxes. As a result, there has been some cooling on the transactional volumes of residential properties in all three markets. Anecdotally, there is some evidence of residential prices beginning to drop in China and there have been several cases of early buyers protesting developer price discounts to newer buyers. Hong Kong is beginning to see some softening in residential values, albeit after the last two years of major rises in value, and Singapore has been able to basically hold values to date. None of these government regulations have been directed toward the commercial property sector, which in markets like China, has residential developers moving into commercial development.
Aside from residential and commercial markets, key hotel markets in Asia have seen excellent growth. Best performing markets in Asia, which are projected to achieve double digit growth in RevPAR for 2011, include Singapore, Beijing and Hong Kong with continued but slower growth in 2012.
Singapore has seen some of the highest levels of supply growth in the region with a lot more in the pipeline. Beijing is forecasted to have the highest level of demand growth in 2011, whereas Hong Kong is expected to finish the year with the highest level of ADR growth. The ability to get debt financing for new hotel construction is becoming more difficult in China.
As the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has evolved, rapid rental rate increases have ceased in Singapore and Hong Kong and are now in a downward mode, with these markets having clearly peaked. Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Seoul, Ho Chi Minh City and Taipei are at or approaching the bottom of declining rent phases and will start to see higher rates. Jakarta, Manila, Shanghai and Beijing have already seen healthy rental increases but are forecast to see slower growth in 2012.
There are early signs of rental growth in Singapore and Hong Kong. Tokyo, Jakarta and Shanghai have reached the bottom and should start to see stronger, rising rents. Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Beijing retail rents have already seen reduced growth in recent quarters, and we expect further slowing.
Rental rates in Singapore and Hong Kong appear to have peaked, with a softening of rates forecast for 2012. In contrast, Tokyo industrial rates are close to the bottom with some increases anticipated over the coming quarters. Beijing and Shanghai have achieved some good rental growth and will likely see growth projection scale back in the coming period.
While the Americas and Europe still have higher annual transaction volumes for commercial property sales above US $10 million, there is a rising trend in commercial property transaction volumes in Asia and a sleeping giant (land sale transactions) that is not reflected in commercial building sales figures. The chart above displays transaction volumes in recent years. The high land transaction volumes in Asia reflect the high cost of land in major, developed, urban centers in Asia as well as the land sale activity to meet the urbanization of populations and the resulting huge demand for new real estate developments in growing, developing countries like China. In addition, Asia grabs 13 of the top 20 spots for the most active global property markets in the last 12 months (as of November 2011).
Major Trends in China
China now has the highest annual GDP growth rate of any major global economy (9.1%), the largest foreign currency reserves in the world (US $3.2 trillion), the second largest economy in the world (almost US $7 trillion), the largest standing military in the world (2.25 million), the largest population in the world (almost 1.34 billion) and was the winner of the most gold medals in the 2008 Olympics (51 gold medals).
European financial ministers must now kowtow to China for Chinese financial support to invest in the €1 trillion European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) bond fund, needed to rescue Greece and the eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner traveled to China to encourage the Chinese government to purchase US debt. It is difficult to miss how dramatically the global economic cards have turned in favor of the Chinese in the last few years.
The Chinese economy is predicted to grow 8.5% in 2012, the slowest growth rate in a decade. The world’s second biggest economy is cooling as weakness in developed nations softens exports, the property market cools and smaller businesses experience a credit squeeze. Unrest in the eurozone spells trouble for China, as Europe is now China’s largest overseas export market.
The 2012 Global Market Report is a unique tool that reviews and summarizes the real estate activities of the past year on more than 200 property markets worldwide. As a reference tool, it reviews values, economies, social factors and other conditions that impact a market.
Each analysis was completed by the NAI Global Member representing the given market. These local professionals are expert at reviewing their markets, identifying trends and reporting market activity. The NAI Global Member making the analysis for each market is identified and may be contacted for additional information. Most of the data in the Global Market Report was collected during the fourth quarter of 2011.
NAI Global에서 매년 발행하는 Global Market Report 2012년판이 출간되었습니다.
세계 각국 200여개 도시의 오피스빌딩, 상가, 공장 등 상업용 부동산 시장에 관한 정보 - 임대료, 공실률, 경기 흐름 등-를 일목 요연하게 정리하였습니다.
자세한 사항은 위 링크를 클릭하셔서 확인해 보시기 바랍니다.
Asia-Pacific Region: Asia is leading the global economic recovery. Asia rebounded swiftly in 2009 and into 2010. Asian region real GDP is expected to grow 7.9% in 2010, driven by better than expected exports and strong private demand. 2011 GDP growth is projected to be 7.3%. Expect continued strong growth in the industrialized markets in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Improved investment, healthy consumer spending, robust exports and industrial production will propel growth. Despite measures to cool the China property market and slow credit growth, China grew at 11.1% in the first half of 2010 and is expected to grow at 10% for the year.
Canada: The Canadian economy, led by exports and a strong commodity cycle, performed well through 2010. GDP growth is expected to hit 2.3% in 2011, tempered by a modest recovery in the U.S. The economy has gained back all the jobs lost over 2008 and 2009, but unemployment remains high at 8%. Modest employment growth is forecast for 2011. Land prices firmed in 2010. Cap rates and interest rates declined slightly. And transaction volume will remain slow due to the low supply of good quality product.
Europe: Europe mounted a modest recovery in 2010, with European GDP growth within the Euro zone improving from -0.4% in 2009 to 1.7% in 2010. However, growth is uneven across the region and is projected to be only 1.1% in 2011. The more export-oriented economies such as Poland, Germany, France, The Netherlands and Sweden are expected to recover ahead of the remainder of Europe. Meanwhile, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the primary concern in early 2010, appear to be in a prolonged recession. European real estate markets will remain challenging in 2011, though continuing low interest rates may balance out some of the adverse market pressures. The fiscal squeeze will reduce inflationary pressure, allowing central banks to slowly raise interest rates.
Latin America & the Caribbean: The Latin America region witnessed remarkable growth in 2010, driven by strong domestic demand, healthy exports of raw materials to Asia (particularly China), and increasing demand due to the modest recovery in the U.S. The region also benefitted from an increase in domestic investment after years of off-shore investment. Latin America is expected to continue its strong growth in 2011, and the Caribbean is expected to begin its recovery as tourism rebounds due to improved economic conditions around the globe.
Visit www.naiglobal.com for more information and download the global market report file.
Class A Office space in the CBD, especially hard hit during the recession, saw leasing activity increase in 2010 as space users took advantage of a tenants’ market to lock in low rates or upgrade from lower-quality space. While not yet a cause for celebration, it was enough to shave a half-point off the national average vacancy rate for downtown Class A office space, which declined from 13.8% in 2009 to 13.3% in 2010 after rising almost 35% the previous year. The national average rental rate for Class A space in the CBD slipped 14.1% from $37.11 in 2009 to $32.51 in 2010, after falling more than 24% the previous year.
The nation’s retail markets also appear to have stabilized. While some markets still struggle to fill big boxes vacated by national chains, others have seen new entries and local retailers upgrading to better locations. The national average vacancy rate for downtown/CBD retail space stood at 8.2% in 2010, down from 8.9% in 2009, while rents slipped from $39.90 in 2009 to $39.79 in 2010.
Industrial markets appear to be on the mend. While demand for weak warehousing space continues to be weighed down by weak consumer demand, the market has benefitted from a diminishing pipeline of new construction. Vacancy rates for bulk warehouse space stood at 10.7% in 2010, down from 10.9% in 2009. Rental rates slipped from $4.60 in 2009 to $4.55 in 2010.
Atlanta: The office market has begun to gradually rebound. Leasing activity has increased, but this activity is dominated by consolidation and downsizing, so the activity does not translate to lower vacancy. There has been a noticeable increase in the total industrial leasing and sales activity and a decrease in the amount of negative net absorption over the last several years. The retail market will continue to adjust itself with some vacant centers that were ill-conceived. Vacancy rates are high in many areas and rent adjustments downward continue to press landlords.
Boston: Downward velocity in the office market appears to be slowing. Vacancy rates increased to 14.1% and Class A rents decreased to $32/SF. The industrial market has been slowed by the recession, but has not seen a dramatic rise in vacancy. The retail market did not experience much change in market conditions from 2009 to 2010.
Chicago: The office vacancy rate, on the rise for two years, leveled off at 17% in the second half of 2010. New construction and redevelopment projects will remain sidelined until some of the more than 22 million SF of vacant space begins to be steadily absorbed and demand returns. Industrial vacancy rates peaked at 12% but improved in the second half of the year.
Dallas-Fort Worth: Office supply exceeds current demand, making it a tenants market with a vacancy rate of 20%. There is a marked increase in absorption and occupancy rates should increase significantly in 2011. Dallas industrial vacancy stands at 12.5%, as tenants maintain the upper hand. Speculative industrial starts could be seen by the end of 2011. The Fort Worth retail market can expect to see stabilized vacancy by the first quarter of 2011.
Los Angeles: Vacancy rates for new office space remain above 30%. Rental rates are still declining for Class A and Class B space. Industrial vacancy rates have fallen to 8.6% and rental rates continue to soften across the board. Malls and community centers experienced a small increase in rents, and discount retailers and quick-serve restaurants are the most active in the market. Outlet malls also experienced strong tenant interest; these centers maintain very low vacancy rates and strong rental rates.
Miami: The CBD and several submarkets are experiencing 20% vacancy rates in office space, as most large tenants have relocated or renegotiated favorable terms in premier buildings. The industrial market is improving with large blocks absorbed, including a 342,000 SF transaction. Retail demand is rebounding as consumer spending increases. Despite store closings, supply is in balance because of barriers to entry.
Washington, DC: The nation’s capital is its strongest office commercial real estate market. It continues its track to recovery propelled by federal government activity in 2010. New York-based restaurant operators saw opportunity in the market and targeted high-traffic venues around Verizon Center in Chinatown.
Visit www.naiglobal.com for more information and downlaod the global market report file.
서울 중심가에 이어 노후지역에 랜드마크 빌딩이 속속 건립되고 있어 눈길을 끌고 있다. 서울시가 이른바 3대 집창촌으로 불렸던 미아리와 청량리 등 재개발 지역 곳곳에 초고층 랜드마크 빌딩을 짓겠다는 계획을 잇따라 발표, 본격적인 개발이 추진되고 있기 때문이다.
이에 따라 이들 랜드마크 빌딩이 건립되면 향후 서울지역 신규 오피스 시장에 활력을 불어 넣어 줄 것으로 예상된다.
9일 건설업계에 따르면 서울 노후지역에 새롭게 들어설 예정인 대표적인 랜드마크 빌딩 건축계획 지역은 3대 집창촌으로 불렸던 미아리와 청량리를 포함해 총 6곳이다.
대표적인 곳이 강북구 지하철4호선 미아삼거리역 인근에 들어서는 문화·쇼핑·업무기능이 결합된 높이 84m 규모의 복합빌딩이다. 층수나 연면적 등 아직 구체적인 조건은 알려지지 않았지만 이 지역에 복합 랜드마크 빌딩이 들어서면 동북권 발전의 중심축 중 하나인 미아균형발전촉진지구 개발이 탄력을 받을 전망이다.
대표적인 노후지역 중 하나인 동대문구 장안평과 성동구 성수동 일대도 초대형 랜드마크급 복합단지가 들어선다. 장안평 자동차 매매단지 부지엔 지하 4층, 지상 31층 규모의 가칭 ‘오토플렉스’가 세워진다. 오토플렉스에는 신차 전시장, 중고차 매매장, 자동차·자전거 연구개발센터 등이 들어선다.
오토플렉스가 세워지면 현대차그룹이 성수동1가 삼표레미콘 부지에 짓고 있는 지상 110층, 높이 540m 규모의 글로벌 비즈니스센터와 함께 성동구 일대가 서울 동북부권의 신흥 도심으로 부상하는 데 견인차 역할을 할 것으로 기대를 모으고 있다.
이 밖에도 서대문구 홍제동 유진상가 부지는 2015년께 48층 높이의 주상복합 아파트가, 준공업지역인 영등포구 양평동1가에는 지상 35층짜리 아파트가 각각 들어설 예정이다.
이처럼 초대형 복합빌딩 신축이 잇따르면서 서울 오피스 시장도 활기를 띨 것으로 예상된다. 노후지역의 랜드마크 빌딩을 포함해 현재 서울에서 사업이 추진 중인 초대형 빌딩만 해도 잠실 제2롯데월드 등 10여 곳에 달하고 있으며 여기에 중대형 빌딩까지 합치면 수십곳에 이르고 있다.
이처럼 서울 노후지역 곳곳에 랜드마크 빌딩 추진 계획이 세워지면서 오피스 공급 과잉의 우려가 제기되고 있지만 전문가들은 큰 영향을 받지는 않을 것으로 전망했다.
상업용 부동산 서비스 제공업체 NAI코리아 박희춘 대표는 “최근 대형 프로젝트파이낸싱(PF)사업이 보류된 것이 많기 때문에 내년 6월 이후에는 (오피스 수급 상황이) 금융위기 이전 상황으로 돌아갈 것으로 전망된다”고 말했다.
Most can see the continuing disconnect between the conditions on Wall Street and Main Street combined with slow to recover residential values and transaction volumes across much of the U.S. market. Meanwhile, across most of the major markets in Asia, we are witnessing quite a different scenario with continued strong and rising markets and values in residential and more recently in commercial values.
Witness in Hong Kong, despite a slew of strong anti-speculation measures intended to cool the hot residential market, luxury residential continues to over-perform. A slew of recent measures in Hong Kong, including steep stamp duties for short-term trading and lower debt allowances have only slowed the pace of sales, but not dented the record-level rising values. At the same time, the office market is strong and retail continues as the strongest performer of all. Investment yields range between 2.5-3.5%.
In Japan, the strong yen and weak economy have weakened the foreign buying interest, although some major Asia-based funds and mainland Chinese investors continue to seek high quality assets in Tokyo. Compressed yields require the yield-driven investors to seek opportunities outside the main wards of Tokyo. A growing number of Japanese investors are seeking investments overseas, both in property and businesses, as the government is encouraging M&A activity.
Taiwan may begin to receive large-scale investment in their property sector from none other than their mainland Chinese neighbors. Investment yields at 3% and under have deterred most foreign investors, but provided there are no major policy changes, upward of US$70 billion is expected to be invested by mainland investors in the coming years.
In India, we have moved into another rapidly rising market where values have risen faster than expected. Property values are beginning to stretch past the occupiers risk tolerance levels. Domestic funds are competing heavily for leased investments in the 11-12% range and foreign funds are finding it difficult. FDI activity in the property sector has been very light, but some policy change may stimulate this sector.
In the Singapore vs. Hong Kong arena, Hong Kong residential is viewed generally as more heated. However, increased residential capital values over the last 15-18 months are holding despite strong anti-speculation measures and slower sales volumes. The new project launches with the best locations and best value pricing are still drawing crowds and selling briskly. Higher price per SF product is absorbing much slower than 6-9 months back. Commercial value expectations have risen by 30% in the last six months as closed transactions established the adjusted benchmark value of S$1600-S$1800 per SF, but most owners will only consider selling from S$2000 – S$2500 per SF. This increase in price expectation has caused the market to slow in the last quarter.
Meanwhile, investors in Asia warily watch the markets in the U.S. and Europe, but the low borrowing costs and high liquidity force them to continue betting down on property here.
-Steve Atherton, MCR
Based in Singapore, Steve Atherton is Managing Director-Asia Pacific Region for NAI Global.
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