Dr. Peter Linneman
First Decade of the 21st Century had a Roaring Start and a Punishing Conclusion, Says NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman
Despite a roaring start to the new millennium, the U.S. economy has little to show for the past 10 years. NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman examines the key factors and trends that led the U.S. and global economy on a volatile roller coaster over the past decade, from a promising start to a punishing conclusion in a new white paper. More >
Robust Recovery in 2010 Will Just Return U.S. to Middling Economy, Says NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman
Strong, steady economic growth over the next two years will just return the U.S. economy to a pre-2008 level, giving us back what we needlessly lost due to government-induced panic and poor lending practices, according to a new white paper from NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman. The white paper examines the overall outlook for the job market and provides a forecast for the next three years.
“The key for the real estate sector is job growth, as a recovery without jobs does not fill buildings,” Dr. Linneman noted. “We anticipate that the next three years will continue to see average job growth of 250,000 jobs per month, for a three-year job increase of at least 9 million jobs by early 2013.” More >
Gulf Coast Commercial Property Experts See No Long-Term Effect on Supply or Demand
The BP oil spill that has continued for more than 60 days has caused widespread environmental damage and is already affecting shipping, fishing and tourism, but commercial property experts in the region do not believe the accident will have a significant impact on Gulf Coast real estate markets, according to a special report released today by NAI Global.
Commercial real estate leaders from markets bordering the Gulf of Mexico and renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman weigh in on how experts are quantifying the impact of the oil spill, and provide regional on-the-ground observations of how property markets are faring today. While some markets may see a temporary up-tick resulting from the cleanup efforts, most do not expect any long-term impact, positive or negative, on supply or demand, the primary factors influencing rental rates and property values. More >
The situation you see unfolding in Europe is one I’ve written about since the inception of the Euro—that it can’t work because fixed monetary unions without sovereign government overlaps invariably run into the problems you’re having right now in Europe.
The Euro countries had agreed to solve that problem when the Euro was created, actually before the Euro was created, by saying none will run budget deficits greater than 3% a year and none will exceed accumulated budget deficits of 60% deficit relative to GDP. Well, there is no member of the European Union right now with a budget deficit below 3%. Even Germany is above it. And some of the sovereigns and Ireland, although not in the Union, have deficits up in the range of 12-15% of GDP, much like the U.S. and England. More >
Earlier this month, NAI Global Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linneman provided forecast during the Global Economic Outlook web conference. Below is a brief excerpt from that conversation, moderated by NAI Global President & CEO Jeffrey M. Finn. To access the full audio and slide presentation click here.
Let’s bring it down to the local U.S. issue of California, for example, or many cities and towns across the country. Is there going to be a reallocation of federal money to prop up those budgets and save the day? More >
Why are we so bullish on multifamily as an investment property? Multifamily fell off a cliff during this recent super recession. Multifamily vacancy rates are quite high. Of course it depends on what markets you are in, but vacancy rates are in double digits, low double digits or very high single digits in most markets. But we are only producing about 100,000 multifamily units. That’s not enough to even replace those units that are being burnt, destroyed, by floods, fires, etc. We need about 320,000 units a year for that. What really has happened to multifamily is that the loss of 8.5 million jobs has caused people to double up. Instead of forming new households, they are doubling up. More >
NAI Global is hosting its quarterly Global Economic Outlook web conference Friday, April 17 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Chief Economist Dr. Peter Linnemna will provide insight into the commercial real estate industry, the challenges we face in today’s economy, the impact of the PPIP and TALF/TARP programs, what defines a “bottom” and where we go from here.
Register now to attend this free, live web conference by clicking here.