Housing complex is planned for city’s west side.

From the Grand Rapids Business Journal written by David Czurak

The Grand Rapids Brownfield Redevelopment Authority gave its blessing to a new residential project for the city’s northwest side, which is the first step to make the proposal a reality.

Rockford Development plans to invest $2.4 million into a four-building residential complex on the corner of Douglas Street and Seward Avenue, just a block south of Bridge Street. The property was home to an American Legion building that closed in 2007. The site offers about 17,000 square feet of buildable space.

“Our plan is to build four residential units,” said Mike Mraz, vice president of development for Rockford Development.

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Riverside Senior Care gets authority’s OK

Northern Michigan developer wants to convert school into senior housing.

From the Grand Rapids Business Journal written by David Czurak

A Harbor Springs multi-family housing developer had its plan amendment approved by the Grand Rapids Brownfield Redevelopment Authority for a new senior living center on the city’s northeast side.

G.A. Haan Development wants to turn the former Riverside Elementary School at 2420 Coit Ave. NE into an assisted living and memory care facility for up to 55 seniors. The Grand Rapids Public Schools system closed Riverside in 2010 and sold the 36,000-square-foot building and its site to Haan Development last year.

“The property qualifies as being functionally obsolete,” said Jonathan Klooster of the brownfield authority.

“Total investment in the project is estimated to be $6.8 million, resulting in 51 new jobs with wages ranging from $11 to $35 per hour,” added Klooster.

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New development on Ionia to get underway soon

Brookstone Capital will add new residences and retail downtown.

From the Grand Rapids Business Journal written by David Czurak

At its last meeting, the Grand Rapids Brownfield Redevelopment Authority unanimously approved an amended work plan to redevelop a vacant parcel at 240 Ionia Ave. SW and authorized a development and reimbursement agreement for the project being done by Brookstone Capital.

Brookstone Capital of Midland plans to build a $15 million, seven-story residential and retail structure on the property across Ionia from Heartside Park. The project includes creating 60,000 square feet of space for 48 one- and two-bedroom apartments, mostly the low-income variety, and 4,600 square feet of space for ground floor retail.

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Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said rental housing demand has been exceptionally strong.  “Rent increases have been higher in multifamily housing where supply is not matching strong demand, thereby allowing landlords to raise rents at faster rates,” he said.  “Overall commercial real estate leasing activity continued to grow in most markets during the closing months of 2012, which is modestly lowering vacancy rates in all of the commercial sectors early this year.”

National vacancy rates over the coming year are expected to decline 0.4 percentage point in the office market, 0.4 point in industrial, 0.3 point for retail and 0.1 point in multifamily, with that sector experiencing the tightest availability.

“Business spending is expected to rise faster in 2013 because of record high corporate profits.  Low interest rates also are permitting companies to improve their balance sheets,” Yun said.

NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook¹ offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc.,² a source of commercial real estate performance information.

Office Markets

Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to fall from a projected 16.0 percent in the first quarter to 15.6 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the first quarter) are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.4 percent; New York City, at 9.6 percent; and Little Rock, Ark., 12.1 percent.

Office rents should increase 2.6 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent next year, following a 2.0 percent gain in 2012.  Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is expected to total 34.0 million square feet this year and 42.3 million in 2014.

Industrial Markets

Industrial vacancy rates are likely to decline from 9.6 percent in the first quarter of this year to 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Los Angeles and Orange County, Calif., each with a vacancy rate of 3.6 percent; Miami, 5.6 percent; and Seattle at 6.0 percent.

Annual industrial rents are projected to rise 2.3 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2014, after increasing 1.7 percent last year.  Net absorption of industrial space nationally is likely to total 121.8 million square feet in 2013 and 103.5 million next year.

Retail Markets

Retail vacancy rates are forecast to slide from 10.7 percent in the first quarter of the year to 10.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.5 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 4.2 percent; and Orange County, Calif., 5.2 percent.

Average retail rents will probably rise 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2.1 percent next year, following a 0.8 percent gain in 2012.  Net absorption of retail space is seen at 11.9 million square feet in 2013 and 16.4 million next year.

Multifamily Markets

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – should see vacancy rates ease from 4.0 percent in the first quarter to 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014; vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are New Haven, Conn., at 2.0 percent; New York City, 2.1 percent; and Minneapolis and Syracuse, N.Y., each at 2.5 percent.

Average apartment rents are expected to increase 4.6 percent this year and 4.7 percent in 2014, after rising 4.1 percent in 2012.  Multifamily net absorption is projected at 270,600 units in 2013 and 253,200 next year.

The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division.  NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.

The NAR commercial community includes commercial members; commercial real estate boards; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors^® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors^®, and Counselors of Real Estate.

Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.

The National Association of Realtors^®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.  For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.

¹Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Outlook in the Research blog section of Realtor.org in coming days at: http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/.

²Beginning in the third quarter of 2011, NAR commercial forecasts have been generated based on historical data provided by REIS, Inc., and do not correspond with prior historical information from previous forecasts.  This source permits coverage of more metro areas than were previously covered.

The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on May 28 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the “News, Blogs and Videos” tab on the website. Other commercial information and reports are posted in the Commercial Research area of the “Research and Statistics” tab.

Grand Rapids, MI (September 19, 2012)

NAI Wisinski of West Michigan welcomes Bradley Hartwell, II as our newest Service Provider. He will be specializing in investment sales. Bradley brings with him five years of experience in commercial banking, property management and investment analysis. Previously, Bradley worked in Macatawa Bank’s commercial lending department as a Commercial Credit Analyst.  He then worked for Friedman Integrated Real Estate Solutions in Farmington Hills, MI where he managed the financial reporting, tenant relations, and physical maintenance of a portfolio consisting of 1.5 million square feet of office, industrial, & retail space.

Bradley has a business degree from Central Michigan University where he majored in Corporate Finance and Real Estate Development. During his time there he worked with GRL Properties where his work led to the acquisition of $3.5 million of industrial investment property.

Positive underlying fundamentals continue to support all of the major commercial real estate sectors, but a slowdown in job creation and ongoing tight loan availability has tempered growth in some areas, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are mixed results among the commercial sectors. “Job creation in the second quarter was about half of what we saw in the first quarter, which is moderating demand in the office sector,” he said. “Industrial and warehouse space is holding on better because imports and exports have advanced. While exports to Europe generally are down, trade has been robust with India, China and other Asian nations, along with Brazil, Mexico and our strongest trading partner – Canada.”

Although still positive, dampened demand is slightly moderating rent growth with the exception of the multifamily market.  “Sharply higher demand for apartments is causing rents to rise at faster rates,” Yun said.  “A return to normal household formation will mean even lower vacancy rates and higher rents in the future.”

The current commercial real estate cycle has been driven by shifts in demand without an oversupply of new construction.  “The difficulty small businesses have in getting commercial real estate loans for leasing or purchase is keeping a lid on demand,” Yun explained.  “Multifamily is the only commercial sector with a notable growth in new space, with some lending provided through government loans.”

With the exception of multifamily, vacancy rates remain above historic averages seen since 1999. Over that time frame the typical vacancy rate has been 14.4 percent for the office market, 10.1 percent in industrial, 8.1 percent for retail and 5.8 percent in multifamily.

Vacancy rates are marginally declining and rents are modestly rising in all of the sectors, but significant changes in the outlook are unlikely before the end of the year. Many corporate decisions on spending and job hiring are on hold given uncertainty over the upcoming elections, whether Congress will effectively avoid a “fiscal cliff,” and unsettled issues such as health care and banking/financial regulations.

“Overall companies hold plentiful cash reserves, but they are hesitant to hire without clarity over how these outstanding issues will impact the bottom line,” Yun said.

“Commercial real estate gains could be thwarted if lending from small and community banks dry up from excessive regulatory compliance costs, and if international big-bank capital rules are applied to smaller lending institutions,” Yun added.

NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook¹ offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc.,² a source of commercial real estate performance information.

Office Markets

Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to fall from an estimated 16.1 percent in the third quarter to 15.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.4 percent; New York City, at 10.0 percent; and New Orleans, 12.8 percent.

Office rent is projected to increase 2.0 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2013.  Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be 24.1 million square feet in 2012 and 47.8 million next year.

Industrial Markets

Industrial vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 10.7 percent in the third quarter of this year to 10.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.6 percent; Los Angeles, 4.8 percent; and Miami at 6.8 percent.

Annual industrial rent is likely to rise 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2.4 percent next year.  Net absorption of industrial space nationally is seen at 59.8 million square feet this year and 67.2 million in 2013.

Retail Markets

Retail vacancy rates are projected to decline from 10.9 percent in the third quarter to 10.7 percent in the third quarter of 2013.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.8 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., 3.9 percent; and Long Island, N.Y., and Orange County, Calif., both at 5.3 percent.

Average retail rent is forecast to rise 0.8 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space should be 10.3 million square feet this year and 20.1 million in 2013.

Multifamily Markets

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is expected to see vacancy rates drop from 4.3 percent in the third quarter to 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013; vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Portland, Ore., at 2.0 percent; New York City and Minneapolis, both at 2.2 percent; and New Haven, Conn., and San Jose, Calif., both at 2.4 percent.

Average apartment rent is likely to increase 4.1 percent in 2012 and another 4.4 percent next year.  Multifamily net absorption should be 219,300 units this year and 236,600 in 2013.

The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community.  NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.

The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.

Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

• Low demand for development (Commercial construction at a 50 year low)
• Household formation is up, but still remains low (High unemployment rate for household formers)
• GDP has rebounded, but still worse off (3%) on a per capita basis due to a 3% increase in population
• The economy is adding jobs, but we still have a long way to go (Have only recovered 21% of jobs across the nation)
• Pent-up households are declining
• Vacancy rates are declining slightly across the board (Industrial, Office, Multi-Family)
• Retail sales are back up (Still 3% less due to population increase)

To listen to the web conference in its entirety, click here to register.

***

Dr. Linneman, widely recognized as one of the leading strategic thinkers in the real estate industry, was recently cited as one of the 25 most influential people in real estate by Realtor Magazine. He serves as Principal of Linneman Associates.

Peter recently shared his take on the current housing  market at a recent NAI Global webinar:

• U.S. does not have excess housing inventory (single- and multi-family), just a lack of household formation.  We do not lack people, just new households.
• Total population continues to grow.  U.S. currently adding 3 million people per year to national population, & only forming 450,000 households.
• There are 1.5 million households that have not formed based on actual population growth since downturn.
• It used to take 2.4 people to form a new household, now it takes 6.6 people to form a new household.
• 1.4 million excess housing units, 2.1 million unformed households.  If all households formed that would be expected to form, we would be 700,000 units short on housing.  Therefore, there is net pent up demand for housing units of approximately 700,000.
• People need jobs to feel comfortable to strike out on own & form household (such as renting an apartment).
• Multifamily Housing Stock: Absolute supply is falling.  Destroyed 150,000 units while adding only 95,000 units in past 12 months.
• Corporate profits are at all time high, even though they fell significantly in 2008 and 2009.  Efficiency is up, and  productivity & profits almost match historic highs.  7.4 million fewer workers producing same GDP.  What have they done with profits?  Cash holdings $3.2 trillion and rapidly rising vs. historic norm of $1.2 trillion.
• Since downturn, U.S. has added 1 million jobs, lost 10 million.  U.S. will probably add 3 million jobs each year for next 3 years.

BOTTOM LINE:  There is pent up demand for housing in general & a shrinking unit supply.  As corporations begin to use cash to add jobs (and increase productivity), multifamily fundamentals should rebound dramatically.  Transparent cash flows & “mark to market” rents will make multifamily the preferred asset class for commercial property investors.

For more information about the West Michigan multifamily market, or for a free property evaluation of your apartment communities, please contact Scott Nurski or Craig Black at (616) 776-0100.